Unpredictable UAAP Final Four

The UAAP Season 87 will be a short tournament, like in the past. The premier collegiate league in the country has kept their membership in tight reins. Expansion is hardly an option. Even when the league has risen to unprecedented heights, the UAAP held on as an exclusive playground for eight member schools. Despite suggestions to include dominant schools in other leagues like San Beda, which is now a university, the league has stood firm. In contrast, the NCAA membership has fluctuated, and there seems to be new prospect schools almost every year. Does this mean that the UAAP has stagnated? Quite the contrary. While there were seemingly insurmountable dynasties that dominated the league for decades, the tide has already begun to shift towards parity. Fall of the Mighty? In most of the past years, the Final Four has been mostly set in stone. Since the rise of UP in the late 2010s, the top three academic universities have also stamped themselves as fixtures in men's basketball. Ateneo, and UP never missed a Final Four date since 2018, and La Salle had a meteoric rise from their mishap of missing the Final Four in 2022, winning the title the very next year. During the offseason, UP and La Salle separated themselves from the rest of the league, recruiting one blue chip after another, and even getting prized active players from other schools, including their mutual rival, the mighty Ateneo Blue Eagles. While the Katipunan squad had their own blue chip recruits, specifically, Kris Porter and Femi Edu, they lost Mason Amos who was supposed to be the cornerstone of their frontline. They lost him to La Salle, no less. Early in Season 87, the Blue Eagles look vulnerable with a 0-3 slate. However, it should be noted that two of those losses were to UP and La Salle. The Eagles had a tough draw, and the other loss was to UST, projected as a Final Four contender. Perhaps, Tab Baldwin's crew can catch a break in the next few games. Side note: Tab Baldwin's imminent departure is seen as the main reason for Amos' transfer decision. There are already rumors on possible replacements. The ability to recruit has become more of a priority nowadays over tactical skill. Who Will Take the Final Two Slots? Why did I call the Final Four unpredictable when two slots seem to be reserved already (for UP and La Salle)? Launch a quick survey among pundits and ask who would take the final two slots–the results will vary. Based on the current standings, Ateneo is the cellar dweller, but you can't count them out of the Final Four this early. Adamson was the odd school out in the preseason, but they're at 2-1. UST is seen as a team on the rise after beating the Blue Eagles, but they also lost to the other blue bird school. Meanwhile, NU took La Salle head-to-head in the final seconds. At this point, the Recto schools, FEU and UE may be seen as struggling, but they both have solid new recruits that may be adjusting. The league is very healthy from a parity standpoint even as two teams separated themselves as early title favorites. The key factor is that no team needs to tank to improve. The league is also dynamic in protecting the lower teams (see the stricter transfer eligibility rules). Most teams have big-name sponsors, and all eight teams can recruit both from the provinces and internationally. Ateneo can easily bounce back next year with the recruitment game, but you can't count out a Tab Baldwin team no matter the roster. The Adamson Falcons are unpredictable, and both NU and UST are dark horses. The second round will be a bloodbath, but every game counts in the short tournament. Side note: Best Coaches in the UAAP so far would be Jeff Napa of NU, and Nash Racela of Adamson. NU didn't feel much of Kean Baclaan's absence and brought overwhelming favorite La Salle (Baclaan's new team) to the endgame. Adamson beat highly confident UST, and it didn't look like an upset. Racela got them riled up.
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