SG's 2024 growth forecast upgraded

SINGAPORE — Economists have upgraded their expectations for Singapore's growth in 2024, according to a survey by the country's central bank published on Wednesday, with better-than-expected external growth seen as the top upside driver for the economy. The median forecast of 21 economists surveyed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is for the economy to grow 2.6 percent this year, up from a forecast of 2.4 percent in surveys done in March and June. They also forecast economic growth of 2.5 percent in 2025. A majority of the economists surveyed by MAS did not expect any change in policy settings at the central bank's review in October. They expect the city-state's economy to grow by an annual 2.6 percent in the third quarter of this year. The September survey showed economists had lifted expectations for 2024 growth in finance and insurance, construction, wholesale and retail trade sectors. Last month, the trade ministry adjusted its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast range for 2024 to 2.0 percent to 3.0 percent, from 1.0 percent to 3.0 percent previously as the second-quarter GDP outperformed market expectations at 2.9 percent. The median forecast for headline inflation for 2024 was 2.6 percent, down from 2.8 percent in the previous June survey. The median forecast for core inflation was 2.9 percent, down slightly from 3.0 percent from the previous survey. Core inflation fell to 2.5 percent in July, the smallest annual increase in more than two years. The central bank expects core inflation to ease more significantly in the final quarter of this year and has forecast core inflation at 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent this year. The MAS left monetary policy settings unchanged in July. It has not changed policy since a tightening in October 2022, which was the fifth tightening in a row, as broader concerns about growth kept authorities sidelined.
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