Q1 farm output flat; El Niño impact tagged

THE country's farm output remained relatively flat in the first quarter of this year as its three subsectors posted declines, with the El Niño affecting the production of a number of commodities.

Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) on Wednesday showed that the country's farm output posted an uptick of 0.05 percent in January to March, narrowing from the 2.1 percent growth posted in the same period last year and from the 0.9 percent posted three months earlier.

At constant 2018 prices, production for the period amounted to P428.99 billion from last year's P428.79 billion, due mainly to the strong performance of the poultry subsector.

Poultry output, with a 16-percent share of total production, was valued at P68.76 billion in the first quarter. This was 5.9 percent higher than the P64.94 billion posted a year earlier.

Three of the four monitored poultry commodities posted growth: chicken at 7.7 percent, chicken eggs at 2.4 percent and duck at 1.6 percent.

Crop production, which accounted for 57.6 percent of total output during the period, dropped by 0.3 percent to P247.03 billion from P247.76 billion.

Palay (unmilled rice), one of the country's main crops, declined by 2.0 percent, while corn posted a 0.5-percent growth.

Eleven out of 23 crop categories posted declines, with sweet potato down the most by 9.0 percent. Double-digit increases, meanwhile, were seen in onion, coffee and sugarcane production.

Fisheries production, which accounted for 12.5 percent of total first-quarter output, posted a 1.3-percent drop to P53.73 billion.

Half of the 22 monitored species registered declines, with threadfin bream (bisugo) and mudcrab production down the most by 37.2 percent and 33.2 percent, respectively.

Livestock production also decreased by 3.6 percent during the quarter to P59.46 billion, lower than last year's P61.65 billion. It contributed 13.9 percent to the total value of production in agriculture and fisheries.

Dairy and carabao output rose by 3.7 percent and 1.0 percent, respectively, but hog output contracted by 4.3 percent and goat by 4.1 percent.

Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. said that the impact of reduced rainfall and hotter temperatures was evident in lower crops and fisheries production in the first quarter.

However, he noted that interventions and assistance provided by the government allowed the agriculture sector "to fare better this time compared to periods in the past when we had El Niño."

"If El Niño will persist through the second quarter, we're cautiously optimistic that the interventions we have taken will allow the agriculture sector to mend and return better results between April and June," Tiu Laurel said.

Michael Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., attributed the decline in output to higher prices of fuel, fertilizer, and other input prices for agriculture.

"For the coming months, the risk of La Niña in the latter part of 2024 could be another risk factor for the agriculture sector in terms of storm and/or flood damage that could reduce agricultural output," he added.

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