PHILIPPINE financial markets reopen today after being closed since Thursday due to a Holy Week break, with trading expected to be influenced by inflation data due this coming Friday.
The bellwether Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) closed 0.31 percent up at 6,903.53 last March 27 from the end of the previous trading week, ending the first quarter of 2024 on a quiet note.
Philstocks Financial Inc. senior research analyst Japhet Tantiangco said the absence of strong catalysts caused traders to be indecisive, which resulted in the market moving "sideways" in March.
He added that for the first week of April, investors were expected to take their cues from upcoming economic data, particularly the country's March inflation report due on April 5.
"An inflation print significantly faster than February's 3.4 percent may further temper hopes of monetary easing by the BSP (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas), which, in turn, would negatively affect the local bourse," Tantiangco explained.
The BSP's policymaking board, originally scheduled to meet this Thursday, has moved the meeting to Monday, April 8, to have the benefit of the latest inflation results.
Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. chief economist Michael Ricafort said that inflation staying within the central bank's 2.0- to 4.0-percent target would "support possible local policy rate cuts later this year."
The PSEi, he added, could also receive a significant boost from the anticipated stronger trading values and activities this week as "more market players ... return from the Holy Week holidays."
Online brokerage 2TradeAsia.com, meanwhile, said inflation's slope of change would be an "interesting data point," considering sharp movements in food and transport baskets as well as hotter temperatures that increased energy demand.
"We remain neutral on any earlier than mid-year rate cycle changes for these reasons, further supported by Fed (Federal Reserve) comments of even stickier US inflation," it said.
Traders are also expected to turn their attention to other markets, Tantiangco said, noting that Wall Street's record-breaking performances, if sustained, might have a positive knock-on effect at home.
"Eyes may also be on the Philippine peso, which has been exhibiting weakness against the US dollar recently. A continuation of this weakening may weigh on sentiment."
Chart-wise, the stock market's support is still expected to be between 6,700 and 6,800, while its resistance is seen at 7,000, analysts said.
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