PHILIPPINE economic growth likely fell short in 2023 and could again miss target this year, the Asean+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) said on Thursday.

Momentum will be "weaker than expected" but the country will remain one of the fastest growing economies in the region," AMRO chief economist Hoe Ee Khor said in a briefing.

AMRO cut its 2023 estimate for the country to 5.6 percent, down from 5.9 percent previously and below the government's goal of 6.0 to 7.0 percent.

The forecast for 2024 was also trimmed to 6.3 percent from 6.5 percent, just under the lower end of the 6.5- to 7.5-percent target.

"The Philippine economy has held up very well despite high inflation and interest rates, and it's much less dependent on exports than other countries in the region," Khor said.

"Nevertheless, still affected by weak exports last year is one reason growth is somewhat weaker," he added.

The country's trade deficit widened in November as exports contracted anew. At $4.69 billion, it rose from October's $4.39 billion and was also higher than the year-earlier $3.72 billion.

Exports were down 13.7 percent in November, an improvement from the previous month's -17.5 percent but still a reversal from the previous year's 13.1-percent increase.

Khor said higher interest rates could be slowing growth but added that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) needed to keep rates relatively tight to make sure inflation goes down.

"We agree with the BSP view that the rates should remain tight until inflation is down to within the target," he said.

Khor expects consumer price growth to average 3.6 percent this year, within the central bank's 2.0- to 4.0-percent target.

As for rate cuts, he said that "as long as the economy is doing strongly, we don't see the urgency for BSP to cut rates."

The benchmark rate currently stands at a 16-year high of 6.50 percent following rate hikes totaling 450 basis points (bps), the last an off-cycle 25-bps increase late October last year as inflation accelerated anew.

Most analysts expect the central bank to keep its policy rate at the current level despite declining inflation, noting that it has yet to return firmly to the target band.

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