Budget's master math on borrowings to pave way for India's ambitions on fiscal gap, growth & G-secs

The upcoming Union Budget for FY2025, a vote-on-account, is expected to provide cues on fiscal consolidation and capex number. The fiscal deficit target for FY2025 is projected to be 5.3% of GDP, leading to a decline in market borrowings. The inclusion of India's G-secs in the GBI-EM Global Index could result in FPI inflows of $18-22 billion. The net and gross market borrowings of the General Government are expected to be marginally higher in FY2025. The softening of Government bond yields could lead to a downward shift in the yield curve, benefiting corporate borrowers and private capex.
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