THE Philippines' raw sugar production for marketing year 2024 to 2025 is expected to remain flat at 1.85 million metric tons (MT), the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) said, citing the El Niño weather disturbance as a factor that can affect yield.

In its latest Foreign Agricultural Service report, the USDA said that around 50,000 MT of raw sugar is produced weekly. However, factors such as diversion to ethanol production and milling production should also be considered.

The Sugar Regulatory Administration, meanwhile, reported raw sugar production to have hit 1.7 million MT as of March 24, 2024.

"With high prices, more farmers have planted sugarcane, but some farms with no irrigation are suffering from the ongoing El Niño, which stunted sugarcane growth and could result in lower yields in MY 2025," the USDA said.

It also noted that sugarcane production was not affected as much as expected compared to earlier predictions of a 10- to 15-percent drop due to the El Niño.

Mill prices, meanwhile, are seen decreasing in September 2024 at P2,758 per kilo of raw sugar from last year's P3,364 per kg "due to the large stock balance of sugar available in the country."

"Mill site prices normally increase toward the end of the milling season (from June to August) as sugarcane supply becomes low," said USDA.

While high prices could benefit both the miller and planters, the US agency said that planters suffered from high costs of fertilizer and other costs such as labor, power, and fuel.

In terms of harvest area, the agency estimated a marginal increase to 387,000 hectares from the previous 385,000 hectares. USDA said that "the prevailing high prices encouraged farmers to plant sugarcane instead of shifting to other crops like corn, cassava and bananas."

The agency also cited the new ethanol plant in Cavite, adding that this could encourage farmers supplying the Central Azucarera Don Pedro, which has announced closure, to go back to sugarcane.

"Cavite Biofuels is able to use both sugarcane and molasses as feedstocks. The ethanol facility currently gets its sugarcane from Batangas," USDA said, adding that expansion of areas near the facility is also expected.

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