RICE imports by the Philippines could hit another record high this year as domestic output remains unable to meet growing consumption.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its projected import volume to 5.1 million metric tons from 4.9 million MT, noting that the country was "importing record amounts due to a combination of population growth and reduced import tariffs."

The government slashed the tariff on imported rice to 15 percent from 35 percent in July to drive down retail prices and help temper inflation.

Department of Agriculture (DA) data showed the Philippines had already shipped 3.8 million MT of the staple as of Oct. 30, surpassing the full-year 2023 total of 3.6 million MT and near 2022's record volume of 3.82 million MT.

Around 80 percent of the imports came from Vietnam, which is expected to post record rice exports of 8.9 million MT.

"The Philippines is expected to remain a primary destination for Vietnamese exports due to a combination of logistical advantages, competitive prices, and rising consumer demand for high-quality rice," the USDA said.

It noted that prices across Asian suppliers had gone down due to the pressure brought by India's market re-entry. The lifting of an export ban on non-basmati white rice and the removal of the minimum export price brought the current export quote to $450 per ton.

Export quotes of Vietnam decreased by $17 to $517 per ton, while Thailand declined by $19 to $498/ton. Pakistani quotes also fell $25 to $462/ton, remaining the most competitive following India.

Last Wednesday, former DA undersecretary Leocadio Sebastian, now a member of the department's technical advisory group, said that Philippine rice imports could hit about 4.2 million MT.

"[T]hat means [this] November and December, we will probably be expecting another 400,000 metric tons minimum," he said while attributing the higher projected shipments to low domestic rice production due to typhoons and the El Niño weather pattern earlier this year.

"We will probably raise [the imports] to about 4.2 million metric tons by the end of the year," he added.

Total annual palay production, meanwhile, is expected to reach 19.41 million MT, equivalent to approximately 12.69 million MT of milled rice, excluding a forecast loss of around 358,000 MT.

The projected milled rice production is higher than the USDA's latest forecast of 12.3 million MT.

Rice consumption for this year is projected by the USDA to hit 17.2 million MT with an ending rice inventory of 3.7 million MT.

The DA has said that a combination of imports and proactive management of domestic production would help ensure stable rice supply for the Philippines.