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Deepening Moscow-Pyongyang ties threaten Asia-Pacific security

By Manila Times - 11 hours ago

A NEW and alarming phase in the war in Ukraine is unfolding, with the reported deployment of at least 3,000 North Korean troops in Russia's Kursk region.

Moscow at first denied the reports as fake news, but Western intelligence agencies have confirmed the presence of North Korean military personnel in Russia, among them "advisers" supervising the operation of North Korean-made missiles launched at Ukrainian targets.

White House national security spokesman John Kirby said the US believes the North Korean troops traveled by ship to the Russian port of Vladivostok in the Pacific early this month to train and acclimatize before they were shipped to frontline areas on the Russia-Ukraine border.

South Korea's intelligence service said it used AI facial recognition technology to identify North Korean officers in the war zones.

United States Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the presence of North Korean troops in Russia was a "next step" after Pyongyang provided Moscow with munitions, including artillery shells, missiles and drones.

True to form, Russian President Vladimir Putin was cryptic about the North Korean military presence. Commenting on satellite images released by Seoul's intelligence service to validate its claim of North Korean boots on the ground in Russia, Putin said: "Images are a serious thing; if there are images, they reflect something."

Putin may be trying to keep everyone guessing if Pyongyang has joined Russia in fighting Ukraine. What he cannot hide is the fact that the war has not been going the way he planned it.

Putin invaded Ukraine in February 2022, confident he would have the Kyiv government on its knees in just weeks. He did not anticipate the fierce resistance the Ukrainians put up in defending their homeland.

Moscow has since absorbed staggering battlefield losses. According to a declassified US intelligence report, an estimated 315,00 Russian troops were either killed or wounded. In comparison, Ukrainian casualties numbered 131,000.

Russia's armored units that spearheaded the invasion also took a heavy toll; of the 3,100 tanks that crossed into Ukraine, 2,200 were destroyed.

Putin was also having a problem enlisting conscripts to replace the dead and the wounded, with many Russian citizens opting to flee to other countries or to hide out to dodge military service.

It is not far-fetched, therefore, for Putin to welcome foreign help to prop up Moscow's sagging military might.

Kirby said the US continues to assess the situation but added that if the foreign troops are "co-belligerents, their intention is to participate in this war on Russia's behalf, that is a very, very serious issue, and it will have impacts not only in Europe, it will also impact things in the Indo-Pacific."

The US has reason to worry about the ripples from the Ukraine conflict reaching the Asia-Pacific region.

Putin has been reaching out to North Korean Premier Kim Jong Un as a strategic partner to counter attempts by the US-led Western alliance to build up its political and military stature in the region.

Kim, meanwhile, welcomes having Putin by his side in his protracted confrontation with South Korea and Japan.

Sending North Korean troops to fight alongside Russia in Ukraine is by far the strongest sign that the Moscow-Pyongyang connection is strengthening.

South Korean officials are concerned that Russia may reciprocate by providing its ally with technologies to upgrade its conventional weapons systems and boost its nuclear and missile programs.

A modernized North Korean army with enhanced nuclear capability could tilt the geopolitical balance in the Asia-Pacific. China has wanted an alliance with like-minded states in the region to establish a "maritime wall" to keep off what it considers foreign intruders like the US. And North Korea fits the bill.

Cho Koo-rae, a vice minister at the South Korean foreign ministry, said the relations between Moscow and Pyongyang are developing into a "full-scale, escalating collusion."

Cho sees "a growing connection between Atlantic and Indo-Pacific security" and urges the US' regional allies to "continue to build irreversible bilateral and multilateral cooperation networks to strengthen our collective response."

It would be wise for the Philippines, which has a big stake in the geopolitical tug-of-war in the region, to heed that call.

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