GLOBAL rice imports are projected to increase following India's trade policy changes, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) said.

The Indian government has lifted a 14-month export ban on non-basmati white rice, removed the minimum export price on basmati rice and reduced tariffs to 10 percent on paddy, brown, and parboiled exports.

"Global trade is now set to rise in 2025 as top exporter India expands shipments and global rice prices are expected to fall," the USDA said in a report.

It said that the Philippines could import around 4.7 million metric tons (MT) of rice this year, up from a previous estimate of 4.6 million MT, due to the "strong buying of Vietnam rice."

Rice arrivals in the country next year, meanwhile, are projected to hit nearly 5.0 million MT due to smaller crops and India's return to the global market.

The USDA said the Philippines would be the world's top rice importer, followed by Vietnam and the European Union, respectively, with an estimated 2.9 million MT and 2.2 million MT.

As of end-September, rice deliveries to the Philippines totaled 3.28 million MT, up from 2.68 million MT a year earlier.

In 2023, inbound shipments of the staple totaled 3.6 million MT, down 5.9 percent from the record high of 3.82 million MT logged in 2022.

The DA has said that 2024 imports are unlikely to exceed last year's volume.

Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. has also said that the removal of India's export curbs could help reduce domestic and global prices of the grain.

The USDA also expects global rice production to increase, driven by higher output from major rice-producing countries.

"Global rice production is forecast up based on a substantial increase for India more than offsetting a reduction for the Philippines," it said.

Domestic milled rice production is expected to decrease to 12.3 million MT, lower than the earlier projection of 12.7 million MT.

Philippine Statistics Authority data showed that production of palay or unmilled rice from January to June was 8.54 million MT, down 5.4 percent from the 9.03 million MT recorded a year earlier.