PRESIDENT Ferdinand Marcos Jr. should curb his elation over the Social Weather Stations (SWS) report that from June 23 to July 1, his administration had an 11-point increase in its net satisfaction score among Filipinos for one major reason.

What was glossed over in the reports was that the satisfaction score was for the national administration and not for Marcos' performance as a president, which had a lower increase of 7 points.

While the data for the two reports came from the same poll made from June 23 to July 24, the report with a rosy picture of Marcos' performance was released September 13, two weeks later than the less-rosy report, released August 1. I find that mysterious.

At any rate, guess what? What likely pushed up the national administration's rating was its high net satisfaction rating for the issue of "improving the quality of children's education." This rose from 56 points in the March survey to 62 points in the most recent poll.

And it's obvious that the high rating for the national administration's performance on this issue was because of Education Secretary Sara Duterte, who had been so visible in that job that, whether she really did perform well or not, she projected the perception that the government was performing well in that task.

Ratings

Indeed, I suspect that the Marcos government's high net satisfaction ratings since the SWS first made a poll for it have been due to the Sara-driven perception that the government was doing well in the education field. (Net satisfaction is percentage satisfied minus percentage dissatisfied; for example, an overall net satisfaction rating of 40 percent is 62 percent satisfied minus 22 percent dissatisfied.) (See figures on Net Satisfaction with the National Administration, Sept. 2023 to June 2024.)

While the issue with the highest rating of 64 points was "helping victims of disasters," this is usually dependent on whether or not there were severe storms closest to the survey period, by which the administration gains points by simply appearing in photos distributing relief goods. Indeed, there were four powerful storms that were still in people's memory when the poll was taken, mainly in June.

What points to the real situation that Filipinos are very dissatisfied with the Marcos administration is the fact that the SWS reported that the two issues that the Marcos administration had the worst performance were "eradicating graft and corruption in government" and "fighting inflation."

On the issue of fighting graft, the administration's net satisfaction rating worsened from negative eight points in September 2023 to negative 10 points. While there was some improvement in the inflation issue, from minus 26 to minus 16, that negative rating still means a "poor performance": The Marcos government posted a steep decline in its task of "fighting crimes that victimize ordinary citizens" from 15 positive points to negative two points. All these three are gut issues.

Three issues

These three issues at the end of the day, or when Marcos steps down and endorses his successor, will be what would be foremost in people's minds when they vote or assess his administration's success, formulated in the following questions:

1. Has the Marcos government reduced corruption so that we can trust his successor to do so?

2. Has it reduced crime that victimizes ordinary citizens?

3. Have prices fallen?

Based on the findings of the most recent SWS poll, Filipinos' answer to all these is an unequivocal "No": This president has failed in his most important duties. Will people elect his endorsed successor? The body politic may not even wait four years.

There is one thing that I find mysterious about the recent SWS polls I hope it can answer. Its previous satisfaction reports on the national administration in the past cannot be found in its archives nor anywhere else on the internet. I had wanted to validate my thesis (that the Marcos government's relatively high satisfaction ratings were pushed up by the satisfaction of the education secretary) by comparing its polls to the net satisfaction of Duterte's administration, during which the education secretary then was not as visible nor charismatic as Sara. Is it hiding its previous polls, which could reveal its flawed polling framework?

Politicians

Politicians now calculating whether to hitch their political start with Marcos should study closely the polls themselves rather than be mesmerized by media's glowing reports on these. For one, while Marcos Jr.'s satisfaction rating jumped from 29 points to 40, this could be — and likely — a fluke: His ratings had gone down from a high of 74 in December 2022, and his recent 40 points means he is 34 points still down from that peak.

Even former president Benigno Aquino III ended his term with a 50 percent net satisfaction, higher than Marcos' 40 percent. Duterte stepped down with a remarkable 88 percent SWS satisfaction. (See Net Satisfaction with General Performance of the National Administration.)

Marcos should have put more thought into going on a ferocious campaign to demonize a charismatic figure despite his nearly total control of media. This was insane. Apollo Quiboloy, Harry Roque, POGOs and EJKs won't pierce Duterte's charismatic side. Social media — which has become the prime source of news for the opinion-changer middle class — has become 80 percent mad at Marcos, with such memes as "nabudol tayo," "bangag" and polvoron presidency) continuing to be viral. No amount of US-government anti-Duterte propaganda is gaining traction. Media is a beast: when it can no longer be fed, it eats its master. And all the PCSO, Pagcor and unprogrammed funds won't be enough to feed this beast. Attack a charismatic figure, and it boomerangs on the attacker.

As world and Philippine history have proven, it takes a century or even more for a charismatic leader to be stripped of people's idolatry.

I suspect — unless he is sick or totally without funds — that Duterte will come out of his cocoon and strike hard at Marcos. He knows how timing is so important in politics.

Marcos and his circle should do a reality check: He has had 41 stressful years, several — if his friends are telling the truth — taking toxic things with just one kidney, and Mother Nature didn't put two kidneys in homo sapiens for nothing. Who will come out to defend Marcos and position himself as his successor? His cousin Martin Romualdez? Ha, ha. Read history.

Facebook: Rigoberto Tiglao

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