PRIVATE consumption will have to improve if the Philippines is to hit its growth targets, S&P Global Ratings said. The debt watcher maintained its Philippine growth forecast at 5.8 percent for 2024 and 6.1 percent for 2025, below the government's 6.0- to 7.0-percent and 6.5- to 7.5-percent targets. "There's some upside risk to our forecast because first half growth was 6.0 percent year over year," S&P economist Vishrut Rana said in a briefing on Tuesday. "So the key swing factor for the rest of the year is whether private consumption comes back online or whether it remains slightly weak and that will ultimately determine whether the economy can hit the 6.0 percent growth mark," he added. Rana said the improvement would largely be based on "gradually recovering domestic demand and also a normalization of monetary policy going forward." Gross domestic product growth expanded by a higher-than-expected 6.3 percent in the second quarter, bringing cumulative growth to 6.0 percent. Government spending on goods, services and capital projects helped lift growth despite weaker household consumption and the challenges of high inflation and interest rates. Last month, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.25 percent from a 17-year high of 6.5 percent to further support the economy. Rana said further cuts were likely to be ordered this year due to minimal inflationary pressures, but "not so sharply that the currency is affected." BSP Governor Eli Remolona Jr. has signaled that the central bank had room for one more rate cut this year. The central bank's policymaking Monetary Board has only two meetings remaining for 2024, scheduled on October 17 and December 19. Despite July inflation having exceeded the upper limit of the BSP's 2.0- to 4.0-percent target range for the first time since November at 4.4 percent, Rana said that S&P did "not expect significant inflationary pressures in the Philippines this year." The central bank has revised its risk-adjusted forecast for 2024 to 3.3 percent from 3.1 percent, while that for 2025 was also cut to 2.9 percent from 3.1 percent. The baseline forecast for this year was also raised to 3.4 percent from 3.3 percent, but that for 2025 was trimmed to 3.1 percent from 3.2 percent. The risk-adjusted and baseline forecasts for 2026, meanwhile, have been set at 3.3 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively.