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A resiliency strategy for sea level rise

By Manila Times - 3 weeks ago

ON the sidelines of the Pacific Islands Forum in Tonga last week, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres issued "a global SOS — Save Our Seas — on rising sea levels."

"This is a crazy situation. Rising seas are a crisis entirely of humanity's making. A crisis that will soon swell to an almost unimaginable scale with no lifeboat to take us back to safety," Guterres eloquently put it.

The 18-member Pacific Islands bloc itself has sounded the alarm on increasing sea levels. In a communiqué they issued at the conclusion of the forum, the bloc's leaders "agreed to elevate the issue of sea level rise politically."

Sea level rise is one of the symptoms of a planet warming at a dangerously fast pace. The rising temperature not only heats up seawater but also melting ice caps and ice sheets, swelling the oceans further.

A 2.7-degree Celsius temperature rise by the end of the century could mean a 1.8-foot sea rise by the end of the century, climate scientists predict.

It appears the predictions are holding. The global average sea level has risen 8 to 9 inches since 1880. Last year, it was at a record high — 3.99 inches above 1993 levels.

That doesn't bode well for coastal communities around the world. According to the UN Atlas of the Oceans, eight of the world's 10 largest cities lie near the coast. The danger zones include megacities like Bangkok, Jakarta, London, Los Angeles, Mumbai, New York City, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Under threat is infrastructure like roads and bridges, water supplies, power plants, and sewage treatment facilities.

Coastal communities could also experience more severe flooding and storm surges.

Climate scientists see a global security crisis looming as coastlines disappear, resources become scarce, and populations are displaced.

The Philippines is particularly vulnerable to sea level rise. A climate risk country profile jointly prepared by the World Bank Group and the Asian Development Bank in 2021 noted that several areas in the country have been experiencing relatively high rates of sea-level rise.

In Manila Bay, for example, the level rose by an average of 15 mm, or.59 inch, annually between 1960 and 2012, nine times the global average.

More ominously, "16.9 percent of the Philippines' islands are projected to become submerged under extreme scenarios of sea-level rise."

"Rising seas are sinking futures," Guterres has lamented. He sees the need to improve forecasting and early warnings to prepare and protect vulnerable communities.

He is also leading the call for the inclusion of sea-level rise as a standalone agenda item in the UN General Assembly. But he is hamstrung by a dearth of research and a wall of indifference.

One observer agreed with Guterres: "While you have projects that focus on forestry and focus on disasters in terms of responding to cyclones through humanitarian services, you don't necessarily have programs or projects that focus on sea level rise."

The Philippines already has plans in place for addressing the threat of rising sea levels.

One strategy to adapt to future sea level rise is through integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) practices. The ICZM approach has been adopted in the Lingayen Gulf, Davao Gulf, Cebu and Batangas Bay.

The World Bank has also pledged to help the government implement climate change reforms.

The Asian Development Bank, through a Country Partnership Strategy (CPS), is helping the Philippine government build the resilience of vulnerable communities to disasters and climate change risks by "linking community-level resilience-building measures to wider investments in community-driven development and comprehensive land use planning."

But because sea level rise is a consequence of human-induced global heating, everyone has a responsibility to protect coastal communities. A greater awareness of climatic variability and change, which is not well understood by the public or policymakers, should be promoted.

As early as 1999, a paper on "Climate change impacts and responses in the Philippines coastal sector" noted that "increasing sensitivity to climate issues will facilitate the public acceptance and subsequent adoption of measures to prepare for climate variability and climate change."

That is still a valid and valuable recommendation that is worth considering.

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