A WASHINGTON-BASED think tank has warned that China will likely resort to less lethal but extremely dangerous tactics as it steps up its confrontations with the Philippines in the South China Sea.

The Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) made the warning after it noted that incidents involving the use of force by Chinese ships at the Ayungin Shoal have increased in frequency and intensity in 2024, resulting in more serious damage to Philippine vessels and injuries to personnel.

The AMTI said it has reviewed studies of Philippine resupply missions to Ayungin since 2021 "to examine the use of force by Chinese vessels" in thwarting such missions.

It said that China has refrained from using "firearms, ship-mounted armaments, or other clearly lethal weapons" during the confrontations.

The AMTI also noted that since 2021, there have been 10 widely reported incidents in which China has used force in blocking resupply missions.

"This amounts to 26 percent of the total resupply missions identified by AMTI," it said.

It said after China blocked a resupply mission in November 2021 using water cannons on two wooden-hulled civilian supply boats, it did not use force again until February 2023, when China Coast Guard (CCG) ship directed a laser beam at the Philippine Coast Guard's BRP Malapascua, temporarily blinding the crew.

"Incidents became more frequent in the second half of 2023, with a total of seven uses of force over the nine months from October 2023 to June 2024," the AMTI said.

"Despite using force at least 10 times in recent years, Chinese ships have only succeeded in preventing supplies from reaching the BRP Sierra Madre twice, in November 2021 and June 2024," it said.

Together with the increased frequency in the use of force, Beijing also ramped up the "deployment of small craft including rigid-hulled inflatable boats and CCG interceptor boats."

The AMTI said an agreement by Manila and Beijing to reduce tensions at Ayungin may have led to an "apparent pause" in confrontations around the shoal, but "it has not eliminated maritime tensions between the Philippines and China elsewhere in the South China Sea."