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Show of force not helping defuse tensions in South China Sea

By Manila Times - a month ago

LAST Wednesday, China carried out an air and sea patrol near Bajo de Masinloc (Scarborough Shoal) to test its "strike capabilities" and reconnaissance capabilities.

That same day, the Philippines also conducted joint air-sea patrols with the United States, Canada and Australia somewhere in the West Philippine Sea.

It's a scary situation, having warships and aircraft from at least five nations holding maneuvers in politically turbulent waters. All this saber-rattling is meant to drive home strong messages: Beijing wants to show it can project its military might even deep into Philippine waters, and Manila wants to prove it has allies that stand ready to help reinforce its defensive posture.

The strategic dynamics of the South China Sea is "marked by a complex interplay of diplomatic efforts, military posturing, regional cooperation and legal disputes," said one political analyst. It is a minefield where one wrong step could have a lethal impact on regional security.

China has grown more aggressive in its territorial row with the Philippines since President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. changed the diplomatic course set by his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, veering away from Beijing and gravitating back to Washington.

China responded by stepping up the militarization of islets and atolls in the South China Sea. Philippine officials say that China has reclaimed more than 1,300 hectares of land in the southeastern part of the waterway.

"They have airstrips. They have harbors for warships. There are structures on land that we could only surmise are aircraft hangars. They have military-grade communications equipment," the Philippine Navy's spokesman said.

China has also increased incursions in two sensitive areas — Ayungin (Second Thomas) Shoal in the Spratlys and Bajo de Masinloc, which lies only 240 kilometers west of Zambales province.

The Chinese coast guard and maritime militia have resorted to dangerous blocking maneuvers, intense laser beams and water cannon in harassing Philippine boats on resupply missions to the derelict navy ship BRP Sierra Madre in Ayungin Shoal that has been converted into a military station.

In the most serious incident, Chinese coast guard personnel, armed with spears and knives, boarded a resupply boat on July 17, triggering a scuffle that injured a Filipino sailor.

The two countries have since agreed on a "provisional arrangement" for resupply missions to Ayungin and to open more channels of communication to resolve sea disputes.

In Bajo de Masinloc, which has been under Chinese control since 2012, restrictions have drastically reduced Filipino fishermen's catch.

Amid the escalating provocation by Beijing, President Marcos not only continues to strengthen the country's ties with the US but has also expanded security arrangements with other allies.

The joint exercises with the US, Canada and Australia showcase "our collective commitment to strengthen regional and international cooperation in support of a free and open Indo-Pacific," military officials of the four participating nations said.

The Philippines earlier held separate naval exercises with Japan. Last week, the coast guards of the Philippines and Vietnam held joint drills off Manila Bay. Manila is also working on a defense cooperation pact with Germany.

China has been warning the Philippines that "wooing countries from outside the region to provoke confrontation ... will only undermine regional stability and aggravate tensions."

The investment "will only lead to greater insecurity" for Manila, it said.

Maintaining the strategic dynamics in the South China Sea requires more than just ending the long-standing dispute between the Philippines and China. Other countries are also contesting Chinese claims on their waters.

A collaborative approach is needed that involves other regional actors. The Association of Southeast Nations (Asean) must play a lead role in shaping the South China Sea landscape. Sadly, it has not been totally committed to that role.

The Asean must press China into reopening talks on the Code of Conduct on the South China Sea, which has been gathering dust since Beijing balked at agreeing to it in 2017.

The regional bloc can also work with other political groupings like the European Union in fostering adherence to norms that guarantee maritime order in the waterway.

Diplomacy and dialogue, not a show of force, will help disperse the clouds of conflict gathering over the South China Sea.

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