THE El Niño weather disturbance will likely cause a decline in the Philippines' copra production and a reduce projected coconut oil exports in the 2024-2025 marketing year (MY), the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) said.

In its latest report, the USDA said that copra crushing would decline by 15 percent, resulting in a 15-percent reduction in coconut oil supply and lower exports of the latter of 900,000 metric tons (MT).

"This year's El Niño will affect the growth of coconut flowers. Since coconut production takes one year, the impact of El Niño will be reflected in the MY 2024/25 harvest," the USDA report said.

Another factor that will lower coconut production is poor farm management as coconut farmers in the country are mostly smallholders who can only do minimal fertilization, constraining productivity.

"Coconut areas affected by dry conditions, dry spell and drought will result in low coconut production, which will affect coconut supply to oil mills located in these areas," it said.

The Philippine Coconut Authority (PCA) has said that coconut farms have not yet been significantly impacted by the El Niño but the effects of the weather disturbance will be felt 13 months after the droughts or dry spells.

The USDA said the decrease in coconut oil production would be offset by palm oil imports, which are forecast to increase by 5 percent to 940,000 MT during the year.

About 80 percent of the country's coconut is processed into copra, the feedstock for coconut oil mills.

The USDA also forecast that the area harvested for coconut would remain flat at 3.6 million hectares during the period. It said that planted area had increased in recent years, but harvested area remained the same as it takes four to five years from planting to make the first harvest.

The PCA has said that about 2.1 million coconut seedlings have been planted nationwide and 8.5 million more are to be planted through a massive coconut planting and replanting project.

The Philippines is aiming to replant 100 million coconut trees by 2028.

Meanwhile, citing data from the United Coconut Association of the Philippines, the USDA said that about 80 percent of copra was crushed for coconut oil production.

Currently, there are 62 copra mills in the country with an annual capacity of 3 million MT of crude and refined oil, and 35,000 MT of virgin coconut oil for the domestic and export markets.