INFLATION could have risen in March due to higher food prices but remained within target, economists polled by The Manila Times said.

The median forecast among nine analysts was 3.8 percent, up from February's 3.4 percent and slightly lower than the 3.9 percent offered by Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Eli Remolona Jr. two weeks ago.

An outturn not higher than 4.0 percent would mean that consumer price growth stayed within the BSP target last month. Results for March will be released by the Philippine Statistics Authority this Friday.

The central bank's policymaking Monetary Board has moved this Thursday's scheduled meeting to next Monday to gain the benefit of the latest data.

It is expected to keep the benchmark rate at 6.5 percent with inflation — expected to top 4.0 percent in the second quarter due to the impact of El Niño on food prices — still to stay firmly within target.

Oxford Economics economist Makoto Tsuchiya, who expects inflation to have picked up to 3.5 percent in March, said inflation would likely keep rising.

"We think the risks to inflation are tilted towards the upside, especially around food prices, given multiple supply-side risks such as weather-related and geopolitical events," he said.

Emmanuel Lopez from the Colegio de San Juan de Letran Graduate School said the rate could have hit 3.6 percent given fuel price hikes and the impact of the El Niño weather pattern.

"Although it is still within the government's target [of 2.0-4.0 percent], by and large, it still negatively affects ... purchasing power," he noted.

For Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. chief economist Michael Ricafort, HSBC Global Research economist Aris Dacanay, and ING Manila Bank senior economist Nicholas Antonio Mapa, inflation could have risen to 3.8 percent last month.

This would be a normalization given prior results, Ricafort said, adding that higher rice prices — the staple was said to account for nearly nine percent of the inflation basket — likely drove overall price growth higher.

Dacanay also tagged higher food prices, saying that "not only did retail rice prices remain at elevated levels, but ... increased further in March due to the ongoing risks of El Niño and the global supply crunch caused by trade curbs in India, the largest rice exporter in the world."

"Unfavorable base effects ... will continue to be present, and we continue to expect inflation in the Philippines to breach the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' 2-4 percent target band in the second quarter of 2024," he added.

Mapa also expects higher rice inflation to have pushed the overall rate towards the higher end of the BSP's target range.

"Higher inflation remains supply side induced but given the elevated nature, could give BSP all the reasons to retain policy rates at their elevated levels of 6.5 percent," he added.

"With rates this high, we can continue to expect to see the negative impact of expensive borrowing costs on potential output and capital formation in the months to come."

Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist Miguel Chanco expects a 3.9-percent result, also due to higher food prices, particularly for rice.

Security Bank Corp. chief economist Robert Dan Roces, with a slightly higher forecast of 4.0 percent, tagged "base effects, some supply shortages from rice, seasonal uptick of fish and certain food items, and potential El Niño impacts."

"Overall, the March inflation rate is likely to be within the BSP's target range, but there are upside risks to consider beyond the first quarter of 2024," he added.

Roces cautioned that fading base effects could lead to above-target inflation over April to June along with weather shifts from El Niño to La Niña and higher global oil prices.

The Baltimore bridge collapse and Red Sea attacks could worsen global supply chain disruptions, he continued, impacting import costs in the Philippines.

Philippine National Bank economist Alvin Arogo and Union Bank of the Philippines chief economist Ruben Carlo Asuncion, meanwhile, said inflation could have breached the target at 4.1 percent last month.

Arogo cited less favorable base effects, stubborn rice inflation, and the recent increase in Manila Electric Co. power prices.

"We believe that inflation will re-accelerate anew before sustainably settling within the BSP's 2.0-4.0 percent target in the fourth quarter of 2024," he added.

"This is because of the threats from El Niño, Middle East conflict escalation and lagged impact of minimum wage hikes."

Asuncion said food prices would have risen, particularly for rice and corn.

"We anticipate headline inflation to surge past four percent year-on-year starting in March with hefty contribution from rice CPI (consumer price index) and latent drought effects on the prices of the other crops, with the worst-case scenario of nearly five percent," he added.

"Our monthly estimates indicated inflation peaking at five percent in May before the deceleration begins."