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2024 will be 'better year' for PH – BMI

By Manila Times - 10 months ago

PHILIPPINE economic growth remains strong and will likely accelerate this year following 2023's slowdown, a Fitch Group unit said.

Gross domestic product (GDP) growth came in at 5.6 percent last year, slowing from 2022's 7.6 percent and missing the government's 6.0- to 7.0-percent target.

Still, the result reflects "the resilience of the Philippine economy, and we think that this momentum will continue going into the new year," BMI Country Risk and Industry Research said in a report on Thursday.

"2024 looks set to be another strong year, and we forecast real GDP growth to accelerate to 6.2 percent," it added, noting slowing inflation, lower unemployment and possible interest rate cuts in the second half.

A rise in investments in the last three months of 2023 was the "biggest surprise," BMI said, which could further improve in the coming months should the rate cuts materialize.

Household spending also grew as inflation fell, "and we see more room for this to run," it added.

But while 2024 will be a "better year," BMI said the government's 6.5- to 7.5-percent target "might prove a tad too optimistic" given expectations of slower global growth.

Exports, in particular, were noted to have posted a negative contribution in the fourth quarter. With world economic growth likely to moderate "a turnaround in trading activity is unlikely to materialize," it said.

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