(UPDATE) THE "assertive transparency" tactic of using visual evidence to expose China's aggression in the West Philippine Sea has been working well for the Philippines, according to a defense and security paper published this week by the Stratbase ADR Institute for Strategic and International Studies.

In the special study issued by the Philippine-based think tank titled "Game Changer: The Philippines' Assertive Transparency Campaign Against China (How the Philippines Rewrote the Counter Gray Zone Playbook)," it was emphasized that the public shaming tactic could be the Philippines' "indispensable contribution to an increasingly contentious and dangerous global gray zone fight."

Grey zone tactics, confrontation, and conflict relate to the use of nonmilitary means to achieve political objectives.

The study noted that assertive transparency, which was introduced in 2023, displayed a "highly focused and proactive information operations campaign" which not only proved that China could be "lodged in a state of embarrassment in the international scene," but could also demoralize or "defeat the aggressor."

However, the paper's authors, retired United States Air Force colonel Raymond Powell and Dr. Benjamin Goirigolzarri, pointed out that the Philippine government should consider it as just one important tactic within a larger strategy to cause a complete behavioral change on the part of Beijing in its territorial dispute with Manila.

For this "novel information operations campaign" to be most effective, the administration of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. should consider three conditions.

First, the Philippines' national resilience should be focused "to prioritize support for the long-term gray zone contest."

Manila should also build international support and impose reputational costs on Beijing.

The first two conditions, according to the authors, "have already yielded substantial gains for the Philippines."

However, while reputational costs have been imposed, an analysis of whether they will produce the desired impact will be premature at this early stage, according to the study.

"While its impacts have been impressive, Philippine leaders cannot assume that assertive transparency alone will produce sufficient deterrent value to win the West Philippine Sea," it stressed.

Herman Tiu Laurel, president of another Manila-based think tank, the Asian Century Philippines Strategic Studies Institute (ACPSSI), said the assertive transparency operation was hatched by the Stanford-based Project Myuoshu led by Powell which was developed last year to keep exposing China's activities in the West Philippine Sea.

"It produced nothing of the claims of Powell of 'reputational cost' to China as majority of [Association of Southeast Asian Nations] member states continues to embrace their close ties with Beijing while distancing from the Philippines' agenda in the South China Sea," said Laurel.

He noted that on January 8, Indonesia announced it is ready to finalize the long-delayed Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, with China "subtly counterposing" against the Philippines' plan for a separate code for Vietnam and Malaysia "which has found no ear."

Laurel said Project Myoushu failed in "building international support" for its cause with only a dozen United States allies out of 193 states of the United Nations showing active concern and support for the said project's "operation and propaganda."

"The Myoushu goal is for other nations to follow suit. But one South China Sea claimant showed determination to stand separate: Vietnam. Instead of following the Philippines' track, it has, last December 2023, established with China the 'Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership Under Continuous Development' ties. The Philippine-Myoushu example is just hot potato," he said.

Laurel said there are clear signs that change is emerging in the Philippines' posture after the President last December called for a "new concept" in dealing with China and to "move the needle back."

"This is the same good old concept that Winston Churchill espoused: 'jaw-jaw is better than war-war,'" he said.

"Ayungin and Scarborough shoals will soon be peaceful and quiet again. All's well that ends well," Laurel said.