Inflation falling, unemployment low, and the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates. Wells Fargo economists predict a soft landing, but still see elevated recession risk due to signs of weakness in the labor market. The effects of higher interest rates may be slower this time as companies refinance debt and buffers like savings and credit card borrowing dwindle. The return of inflation could put policymakers in a tight spot, unable to cut rates and potentially considering rate hikes. Unforeseen events like disruptions in shipping lanes or new threats could upset the balance and create job loss.