Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) predicts a 1.2% decline in the value of global merchandise trade due to geopolitical uncertainties. The US dollar value of world merchandise trade fell 5% in 2023 to USD 24.01 trillion, but this was mostly offset by a strong increase in commercial services trade, which rose 9% to USD 7.54 trillion. This allowed world goods and commercial services exports on a balance of payments basis to slip 2% in 2023 to USD 30.8 trillion.
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